Here you can find a simple epidemiological model. It is called the SIR model without vital dynamics. The full information about the theory of the SIR model you can find in Wikipedia.
Model is interactive and you can find it it on the page:
Please, remember that this model is simplified. It should not be used to predict the future.
It was developed only to show how difficult is to predict the future. It shows a very important thing, that the social distance matter, in this model represented by the Basic reproduction number. Try to minimize the Basic reproduction number to get a better fit.
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